Although the course of gradual disengagement is highly improbable for a variety of reasons, analyzing this policy alternative is a useful exercise that serves, at a minimum, to sharpen the arguments -- and demonstrate the need -- for continued involvement in Colombia. It is tempting to look at the Andean nation's profound and unrelenting crisis and conclude - as some no doubt have - that the United States would be better off not being involved at all. The situation is simply too complex, messy, and overwhelming. The United States doesn't understand Colombia - and never will. There are too many risks involved, and not enough at stake for the United States. Perhaps it would make sense, the argument goes, just to "let it go."

This view has a certain appeal, especially if one gives primary importance to keeping the United States as untainted as possible. The problem, of course, is that policy prescriptions actually carry consequences. In this case, were the United States to withdraw its support, it is a reasonable bet that the condition of sheer lawlessness and insecurity that already grips Colombia would get even worse, producing higher levels of violence and greater human tragedy.

Indeed, if one were to extrapolate current dynamics - the growing military and financial strength of both the paramilitary groups and the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) and spreading criminality, all fueled by the drug economy - the picture that emerges is a dire one. The fundamental problem - the inability of the Colombian government to protect its citizens - becomes exacerbated. Although it is possible to argue that in the short term the deterioration may primarily impinge on Colombia and to a lesser extent its neighbors, in the long run, the United States - its basic interests and core values - would be deeply affected, and in multiple ways.

Colombia's deepening tragedy - the country's acute humanitarian and human rights conditions are beyond question-- demands positive U.S. engagement. South America's oldest democracy is at serious risk, and the United States, consistent with its commitment to democratic values, has the capacity and responsibility to help reverse the downward spiral. The crisis, moreover, undermines the broader U.S. goal of building a secure, democratic, and prosperous hemispheric community.

Other key U.S. interests are also at stake. First, Colombia's deterioration could well continue to spread conflict beyond its borders, causing instability in a region that is increasingly uncertain in political and economic terms. Second, Colombia is South America's fourth largest economy and the fifth largest U.S. export market in Latin America, making it a strong and valuable partner in the region. Third, Colombia produces between 80 and 90 percent of the cocaine and roughly two-thirds of the heroin consumed in the United States, and as a result, is a vital partner in tackling the drug problem. And finally, worsening conditions in Colombia could well provoke an even greater exodus from the country. In the last five years, more than one million Colombians have emigrated, with the United States being the principal destination.

The likely effects of a complete U.S. disengagement from Colombia are frightening to contemplate. To adopt such a course would be the height of irresponsibility. Rather, the challenge for the United States is to find the most productive way to better enable the Colombian government to protect its citizens, in accordance with democratic principles and the rule of law. Nobody believes this is easy, and in fact many doubt (with good reason) whether this is even feasible. Yet it is imperative to try.